Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton, one of Washington’s most seasoned and sharp-eyed foreign policy strategists, has issued a pointed warning:
President Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs on India—intended to hurt Russia—might instead produce the exact opposite outcome, nudging New Delhi into deeper alignment with Moscow and Beijing.
In an interview with CNN, Bolton, who served as NSA from 2018 to 2019 and has decades of experience advising US administrations on matters of security, intelligence, and diplomacy, broke down the unintended consequences of the Trump administration’s latest trade offensive.
Trump’s tariffs against India are intended to hurt Russia, but they could push India closer to Russia and to China to oppose these tariffs,” Bolton cautioned, his voice carrying the weight of someone who has seen both Cold War politics and 21st-century strategic realignments up close.
Bolton’s central argument was that Washington’s approach is strategically flawed.
By adopting a hardline economic stance on a democratic partner like India, while simultaneously showing leniency toward China, the US risks undermining decades of painstaking work to distance India from its Soviet-era dependence on Russia and its more recent cooperation with Beijing.
In a detailed opinion piece for The Hill, Bolton went even further, calling Trump’s approach “an enormous mistake and entirely counterproductive for America.”
He argued that these tariffs—which hit friend and foe alike—erode trust built over decades and may yield negligible economic benefits, all while risking serious geopolitical setbacks.
A Tariff Policy That Hits Allies Harder Than Rivals
Bolton pointed to what he sees as an alarming imbalance:
- China, with its long history of trade abuses, theft of intellectual property, and protectionist barriers, appears to be receiving more favorable terms from Trump’s White House in the hopes of striking a deal.
- India, by contrast, faces punishing tariff hikes—now over 50% on some exports, with a 25% “secondary tariff” aimed at penalizing New Delhi for continuing to buy Russian oil.
Trump’s announcement on July 30 set India’s new tariff rate at 26%, up sharply from the pre-April average of 2.4%. This hike was accompanied by sharp criticism of India’s purchase of Russian military equipment and energy resources, which Washington argues violate US sanctions related to the Ukraine conflict.
India is now tied with Brazil at the top of the US tariff list. Notably, this escalation came just as Washington and New Delhi were reportedly close to concluding a new trade agreement—a deal now likely derailed.
Strategic Fallout: The Russia-China-India Equation
Bolton warned that instead of isolating Russia, this tariff strategy could strengthen its global partnerships. India, he said, may not only continue buying Russian oil but also find common cause with China in resisting US pressure.
Such an outcome could revive a kind of strategic bloc, different from the Cold War, but no less significant in shifting global power dynamics.
Trump’s leniency on the Chinese and heavy-handed tariffs on India jeopardize decades of American efforts to bring India away from Russia and China,” Bolton said, noting the irony of a policy that alienates a democratic ally while sparing an authoritarian competitor.
The Bigger Picture: Trust, Trade, and Strategic Leverage
Bolton underscored that Washington’s global influence has historically relied not just on military power but also on the trust of allies and partners. Imposing blanket tariffs on “friend and foe alike,” he argued, chips away at that trust and risks handing diplomatic wins to adversaries.
He also drew attention to the timing. With Trump preparing to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin within days, Moscow could seize the India tariff issue as a wedge to further deepen its ties with New Delhi. Such a scenario would blunt the very sanctions policy Washington claims to be defending.
India Holds Its Ground
So far, the tariffs have not succeeded in forcing India to reduce Russian oil imports. New Delhi has dismissed the US measures as “unfair and unreasonable”, noting that other countries also engage in energy trade with Russia without facing the same level of punitive action. Moscow, for its part, has openly backed India, accusing the US of engaging in “illegal trade pressure.”
Bolton’s Final Warning
Bolton concluded that Trump’s “zeal for a deal” with Chinese President Xi Jinping risks sacrificing long-term US strategic interests for short-term political optics.
If the White House continues down this path, he said, it will represent a potentially enormous foreign policy blunder—one that could undo decades of careful diplomatic investment in US-India relations.
For Washington, the message from one of its most experienced national security thinkers is clear: you cannot afford to alienate a democratic partner in Asia while bending over backwards for an authoritarian rival, especially in a world where great-power competition is heating up.
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