The Trump administration on Thursday unveiled a proposal that would bar Chinese airlines from using Russian airspace on routes connecting China and the United States — a move aimed at addressing what Washington views as a significant competitive imbalance in international aviation.
According to the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Chinese carriers currently flying over Russian territory enjoy shorter flight times and reduced fuel consumption, giving them a cost and efficiency advantage over U.S. airlines that have been prohibited from using Russian airspace since early 2022.
The DOT described this situation as “unfair and resulting in substantial adverse competitive effects on American carriers.”
The proposed order would specifically apply to foreign air carrier permits issued by the United States, but cargo-only flights would remain unaffected.
The airlines likely to be impacted include Air China, China Eastern, China Southern, and Xiamen Airlines. Interestingly, Cathay Pacific, the Hong Kong-based airline that continues flying over Russia on its New York–Hong Kong route, was not named in the proposal.
This regulatory step arrives amid intensifying trade and geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing.
Only a day earlier, China had tightened export restrictions on rare earth minerals, which are vital for several U.S. industries, escalating a trade conflict already strained by technology disputes and supply chain vulnerabilities.
Following the announcement, shares of China’s major state-owned carriers dipped slightly — Air China by 1.3%, China Southern by 1.8%, and China Eastern by 0.3%.
All three have reported consecutive annual losses since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the latest proposal threatens to further disrupt their recovery plans.
The roots of the current dispute lie in Russia’s retaliatory ban on U.S. and allied airlines flying through its airspace, enacted after Washington prohibited Russian flights in March 2022 in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
While U.S. and European airlines have been forced to take longer, costlier routes, Chinese carriers have continued to fly over Russia, using the shortcut to boost market share on trans-Pacific routes.
Negotiations held in May 2023 allowed for more Chinese flights to the U.S. — on the condition that new routes avoid Russian airspace. Still, the Transportation Department capped total weekly round-trip flights between both nations at 50, largely due to pressure from U.S. airlines and labor unions who argued for fair competition.
Meanwhile, Boeing is reportedly in talks to sell as many as 500 commercial jets to China, a deal that could mark a significant revival in the company’s business ties with the world’s second-largest aviation market — though such progress now faces political headwinds.
The DOT has given Chinese airlines two days to respond to the proposal, with a final ruling expected as early as November.
If approved, the new order could reshape the dynamics of U.S.-China aviation, forcing Chinese carriers to re-route flights or face restrictions on U.S. landing rights.
Some American airlines, however, have cautioned that nonstop flights from the East Coast to China are already economically unsustainable without access to Russian airspace — a challenge that could persist even if the rule is implemented.
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