Chinese refineries are moving quickly to take advantage of discounted Russian oil supplies that were earlier destined for India, as New Delhi sharply reduces purchases under mounting tariff pressure from Washington.
Industry analysts confirmed that at least 15 cargoes of Russian crude have been booked by Chinese refiners for October and November deliveries, with shipments expected from Russia’s Arctic and Black Sea ports—routes that traditionally cater to India.
India Pulls Back Under U.S. Tariff Heat
India and China emerged as the two biggest buyers of Russian crude after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which drove Western countries to impose sweeping sanctions on Moscow.
But the equation is shifting. In July 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian oil, vowing to tighten Moscow’s economic isolation.
This month, Washington followed through by imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports, on top of an earlier 25% penalty—explicitly linking the measures to India’s continued Russian oil and gas purchases.
The economic blow has forced India to scale back its intake of Russian crude, despite its reliance on low-cost supplies.
China Capitalizes on Opportunity
According to Muyu Xu, senior crude analyst at energy data firm Kpler, China’s state-owned and private refiners have already purchased 13 cargoes for October and at least two more for November.
Each shipment typically carries 700,000 to 1 million barrels, translating into a significant diversion of flows from Indian to Chinese buyers.
Xu described the purchases as “opportunistic,” with Russian crude still priced at least $3 per barrel cheaper than Middle Eastern alternatives.
“Given the pressure Trump is placing on India, Chinese refiners see this as a good moment to step in. Prices are favorable, and the window of opportunity may not last long,” Xu observed.
While President Trump hinted after he meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin that he may consider similar penalties on Beijing, he stressed to Fox News that such a move is not imminent—“maybe in two weeks or three weeks.” Until then, Chinese refiners appear poised to secure more shipments.
Russia’s Energy Lifeline
The stakes are high for Moscow. India had become Russia’s single largest crude customer, with 36% of its imports sourced from Moscow before the recent cuts.
In 2024, India imported around 88 million tonnes of Russian crude, worth $53 billion, according to United Nations trade data.
By contrast, China imported 109 million tonnes of Russian oil in 2024—worth $62.6 billion—making up nearly 20% of its total crude imports, according to Chinese customs data.
Russia today supplies about 13.5% of China’s oil imports, compared to India’s 1.7 million barrels per day before the slowdown.
Xu cautioned, however, that China cannot fully absorb India’s share: “India buys around 1.7 million barrels per day of Russian crude, while China’s seaborne intake is closer to 1.2 million barrels per day.
If India continues to hold off, it will pose a significant problem for Russia.”
Unequal U.S. Pressure?
Interestingly, Washington has thus far refrained from punishing China for continuing to import Russian crude, even though Beijing’s purchases exceed India’s in both volume and value. This has raised eyebrows in diplomatic circles.
Analysts say the unequal treatment reflects cold political and economic calculations.
With China being the largest buyer of Russian oil, Washington may be reluctant to trigger a full-scale confrontation while it is simultaneously locked in a complex trade rivalry with Beijing.
India, however, has been more directly targeted, despite being a smaller importer compared to China.
The Bigger Picture
The developments underscore how Russian oil has become Moscow’s economic lifeline, sustaining revenues despite Western sanctions. But with India retreating under U.S. pressure and China reluctant to fully absorb the shortfall, Russia may face renewed strain on its oil export strategy.
For now, Beijing is seizing the moment, securing cheap barrels while Washington’s tariff crosshairs remain fixed squarely on New Delhi. Meanwhile, Trump has no imminent plans to impose e oil tariff on China, sources said
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