How Long Can Israel Sustain This War? Missile Defence Costs and Depleting Arsenal Raise Alarming Questions
As the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, a pressing question looms over Tel Aviv: how much longer can Israel sustain its defence against relentless missile attacks without exhausting its arsenal?
Israeli missile defence systems—lauded globally for their technological sophistication—are now facing an unprecedented test of endurance.
According to a media report citing a U.S. official with access to allied intelligence assessments, Israel is rapidly burning through its supply of long-range missile interceptors, particularly those from the Arrow system, which are designed to neutralise high-altitude ballistic threats.
Since Israel initiated Operation Rising Lion last Friday, Iranian forces have launched approximately 400 ballistic missiles, part of an estimated arsenal of 2,000 capable of reaching Israeli territory.
Israeli defence systems have succeeded in intercepting the majority of incoming projectiles, but at a steep cost—both strategically and financially.
The Arrow interceptors alone cost $3 million each, and when factoring in the broader layered defence framework—which includes Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and U.S.-supplied Patriot and THAAD systems—the financial toll is staggering. Israeli financial publication The Marker estimates that each night of full-scale defence operations costs up to $285 million (1 billion shekels).
Such expenditures are unsustainable over a prolonged period.
Despite claiming significant battlefield gains—including the destruction of one-third of Iran’s missile launchers and reportedly achieving air superiority—Israeli officials face a stark reality: over half of Iran’s missile inventory remains intact, and much of it may be hidden in underground bunkers, shielded from airstrikes.
The consequences of dwindling interceptor reserves are already visible. A recent missile barrage saw several Iranian projectiles slip through Israel’s defence net.
One struck near the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv; another hit a major oil refinery in Haifa, forcing its shutdown. A third barrage damaged infrastructure near an intelligence complex north of Tel Aviv, with social media footage verifying multiple impacts.
The Israeli government has so far confirmed 24 fatalities and over 600 injuries since the latest escalation began.
Military analysts warn that without immediate resupply from the United States or a drastic reduction in attack frequency, Israel’s current missile defence reserves could be depleted within 10 to 12 days.
“The system is already overwhelmed,” a source briefed on U.S. and Israeli intelligence told WSJ. “Soon, they may have to choose which missiles to intercept.”
That grim scenario raises strategic and humanitarian concerns. As the Arrow and David’s Sling batteries run low, Israel may be forced to prioritise protecting high-value targets, leaving civilian areas more vulnerable.
While Israel’s offensive campaign has inflicted heavy damage on Iranian infrastructure—including military bases, oil facilities, and suspected nuclear-linked sites—the war’s outcome may now hinge less on offensive capability and more on how long Israel can keep defending its skies.
The next few days could be decisive. If missile barrages continue at this intensity, Israel’s most advanced—and expensive—defensive umbrella could begin to falter, turning the tide of the conflict from calculated deterrence to a high-risk gamble for survival.
