India Poised for Above-Normal Monsoon Rainfall in June and the Season Ahead: IMD Forecast
India is expected to witness above-normal rainfall during June, with projections indicating precipitation levels reaching 108 percent of the long-period average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Tuesday.
This optimistic outlook extends into the broader monsoon season, with the weather agency forecasting 106 percent of the LPA rainfall, suggesting a robust and active monsoon this year.
The announcement was made during a press briefing addressed by M. Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, who emphasized that the upcoming monsoon season is likely to be beneficial, particularly for the core monsoon zone of the country.
This zone is crucial for Indian agriculture as it receives a significant portion of its annual rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon, which typically spans from June to September.
According to the IMD, the core monsoon region—comprising parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, and adjacent territories—is likely to experience above-normal rainfall, defined as exceeding 106 percent of the LPA.
This is particularly important for the region’s agrarian communities, many of whom rely almost entirely on seasonal rain for cultivation and sustenance.
In terms of regional distribution, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD, provided a more detailed outlook. He stated that Northwest India, which includes states like Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and parts of western Uttar Pradesh, is forecast to receive normal rainfall during the monsoon season.
This suggests a balanced distribution of rainfall that could support both agriculture and water resource management in the region.
On the other hand, the forecast for Northeast India is less promising. The region, known for its rich biodiversity and dependence on consistent rainfall, may witness below-normal precipitation this season.
This could potentially affect the sowing of crops and availability of water in states like Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh, which are generally accustomed to heavy monsoon rains.
Meanwhile, Central India and the southern peninsular region—including states such as Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala—are also expected to receive above-normal rainfall.
This prediction is likely to bring relief to regions that often experience water scarcity during the pre-monsoon months.
The long-period average of monsoon rainfall, calculated over several decades, currently stands at 87 cm (870 mm). The IMD’s seasonal forecast of 106 percent implies that the country may receive around 92.2 cm of rainfall this year, a figure that would support both agricultural productivity and reservoir levels.
In summary, the IMD’s latest forecast brings positive news for large swaths of the country, particularly for the farming sector.
While the outlook varies by region, the overall indication of above-normal monsoon rainfall bodes well for food production, rural livelihoods, and water management efforts across India.
However, regions predicted to experience below-normal rainfall may need to prepare for potential shortfalls in water availability and agricultural output.
