India’s Monsoon Progress Stalls After Early Start, Rainfall to Remain Subdued Until Mid-June: IMD

 

The eagerly awaited annual southwest monsoon, which arrived in India ahead of schedule this year with its earliest onset in 16 years, has hit a temporary pause in its advancement.

As per senior meteorologists at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall activity across large parts of the country is expected to remain significantly subdued for at least the next week.

However, there is optimism that the monsoon may regain momentum beginning around June 11.

This temporary stall in the monsoon’s progress comes after a promising early arrival on May 24 over Kerala, nearly a week ahead of the normal onset date of June 1.

Following its onset, the monsoon made swift progress across southern, northeastern, and parts of western India, raising hopes among farmers and policymakers alike for a timely and robust rainy season.

However, its advance has since slowed significantly, leaving large swathes of the country, particularly in central and northern regions, awaiting rainfall.

Speaking to the media, S.D. Sanap, a senior scientist with IMD’s Pune office, explained that current climatic conditions are not supportive of monsoon advancement in the immediate future.

“We are expecting subdued rainfall activity in most parts of India for the next several days.

However, a revival is likely from June 11–12, when conditions should become more favorable for the monsoon to advance further into the northern and central parts of the country,” he said.

Another IMD official, who asked not to be named, elaborated that a new weather system is likely to develop in the Bay of Bengal around June 11.

This system is expected to enhance moisture flow and intensify the monsoon circulation, aiding its progression into areas that are currently dry.

The monsoon is critical to India’s agricultural sector, which is the primary source of livelihood for more than half of the population.

The annual June-to-September monsoon season accounts for nearly 70% of the country’s total rainfall and plays a vital role in recharging reservoirs, aquifers, and irrigating fields.

With nearly 50% of India’s farmland lacking access to irrigation, timely and adequate rainfall is essential for sowing key kharif (summer) crops such as rice, maize (corn), cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane.

This year’s early onset had initially brought cheer to farming communities and the agricultural markets.

However, the abrupt halt in rainfall has created uncertainty, especially among farmers in central and western India who are now reluctant to begin sowing until soil moisture levels improve.

“Farmers were optimistic when the rains arrived early. But now that rainfall has stalled, many are postponing the sowing of crucial crops like soybean and cotton,” said a Mumbai-based commodities trader with a global agri-trade firm.

“They’re waiting for the ground to be adequately moist before they plant, as sowing too early without sufficient water can damage seeds and affect yields.”

Traditionally, the monsoon begins its journey over India from the coast of Kerala in early June, gradually spreading across the subcontinent to reach the northwest by mid-July.

The early arrival this year raised hopes for a prolonged and productive season, potentially aiding crop output and stabilizing food inflation, which has been a concern for policymakers.

While the delay is not unusual in meteorological terms, its timing, after an early onset, has caught many by surprise. The IMD has urged patience, suggesting that this is only a temporary phase and not an indication of a weak monsoon.

As the country waits for the next pulse of rain-bearing clouds to roll in, meteorologists continue to monitor conditions in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, which play a crucial role in steering the monsoon’s direction and intensity.

In conclusion, while India has witnessed an unusually early beginning to its monsoon season in 2025, a period of reduced rainfall activity has now set in.

Encouragingly, weather experts anticipate a resurgence of monsoon conditions from June 11 onward, which could bring relief to farmers and aid in the timely sowing of critical crops.

Until then, the agriculture sector and government agencies remain on alert, closely tracking developments that will shape the season ahead.