The Unending Decline of Congress in Uttar Pradesh: A Party Adrift Without a Shore
By M. Hasan
Lucknow — The Congress Party’s fall from grace in Uttar Pradesh has been steady, unbroken, and seemingly irreversible since the 1989 Assembly elections — the year it was ousted from power, never to return.
Without a dependable vote base or charismatic local leadership, the party today stands as a mere spectator in a political landscape it once dominated.
Even as whispers grow about a possible organizational overhaul to prepare for the 2027 battle, the absence of credible state-level faces makes the task daunting, if not impossible.
When Mulayam Singh Yadav — the patriarch of backward politics and a true Lohiaite — first assumed office as Uttar Pradesh’s Chief Minister in December 1989, his cryptic observation would turn prophetic.
After dethroning the Congress with the BJP’s outside support, Yadav remarked: “Now, Congress will never come to power in UP.”
His words have echoed across the corridors of time — unchallenged and unchanged — for thirty-six years.
Back then, Yadav’s ascent through the Janata Dal marked a seismic shift in UP’s politics: the fall of the Congress coincided with the rise of caste-based regional parties like the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party.
What followed was a slow but certain erosion of Congress’s influence — a transformation from being a ruling powerhouse to a rudderless vessel, drifting aimlessly, often forced to play second fiddle to regional heavyweights.
From Dominance to Decay
The Congress’s downfall began with the 1989 Assembly polls and has persisted ever since.
The numbers tell a stark story: from a commanding 269 seats and 39.25% vote share in 1985, the party has been reduced to just two Assembly seats and a dismal 2.4% vote share in 2022.
Even the brief glimmer of hope in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections — when it secured 21 MPs with 18.3% of the vote — proved fleeting.
That year, when a central party functionary known for his hearty laughter was told by journalists that Congress’s prospects looked bright in UP, he quipped wryly, “Even ten seats would save our izzat (prestige).”
Ironically, the party’s 21-seat success surprised even its own leadership.
A closer look at the data from the last eight elections — both Assembly and Lok Sabha — underscores the relentless decline:
- 2007: 8.6% vote share, 22 MLAs
- 2009: 18.3%, 21 MPs
- 2012: 11.6%, 28 MLAs
- 2014: 7.5%, 2 MPs
- 2017: 6.3%, 7 MLAs
- 2019: 6.31%, 1 MP
- 2022: 2.4%, 2 MLAs
- 2024: 9.46%, 6 MPs
- Despite occasional flickers of resurgence, the Congress’s graph in UP has largely mirrored a flat line.
The Priyanka Gamble That Failed
In 2022, the party placed its bets on AICC General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, hoping her charisma would ignite a revival.
Her spirited slogan — “Ladki hoon, lad sakti hoon” (“I am a girl, I can fight”) — sought to empower women and reshape Congress’s image.
The party fielded 159 women candidates, accounting for 40% of its total.
But the gamble backfired disastrously. Out of 403 seats, Congress won only two — Aradhana Mishra “Mona” from Rampur Khas in Pratapgarh, and Virendra Chaudhury from Pharenda in Maharajganj.
Merely four other candidates managed to save their deposits, while 397 forfeited theirs — a stark indicator of the party’s disconnect from the electorate.
It was, by every measure, the worst-ever performance of the Congress in Uttar Pradesh’s political history.
The Crisis of Identity and Relevance
The emergence of a bipolar contest between the BJP and SP has further shrunk Congress’s already narrow space.
The 2027 Assembly elections appear poised to continue this two-front fight, leaving little room for the grand old party to maneuver.
Rahul Gandhi, now Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha and MP from Rae Bareli, has been trying to rekindle grassroots connections.
His recent visit to Fatehpur to meet a Dalit lynching victim’s family was seen as part of a broader strategy to win back Dalit support. Yet, the task remains monumental.
The Congress’s once-powerful social coalition — the Brahmin-Dalit-Muslim axis — has fragmented beyond repair.
The Samajwadi Party today commands overwhelming Muslim support; Brahmins and sections of Dalits have gravitated towards the BJP’s saffron camp; and Mayawati is fighting to reclaim her Dalit base for the BSP.
Meanwhile, backward communities remain sharply divided between the BJP and SP — a fragmentation that leaves little political oxygen for Congress.
Mulayam’s Prophecy Fulfilled
In hindsight, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s brand of backward-caste politics did not just transform UP’s political dynamics — it rendered the Congress politically obsolete in the state. His prophecy, uttered over three decades ago, continues to stand vindicated.
Today, the Congress in Uttar Pradesh is caught between nostalgia and irrelevance, struggling to find both a narrative and a face capable of reviving its fortunes.
Unless it undertakes a fundamental ideological and structural reinvention, the path back to power may remain a mirage — forever out of reach.
( The writer M Hasan is a Former Chief of Bureau, Hindustan Times, Lucknow)
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