With the clock ticking toward a bruising escalation in the U.S.–China trade war, President Donald Trump on Monday slammed the brakes—signing an order just hours before massive tariff hikes were set to land.
The move keeps U.S. duties on Chinese imports at 30% and Chinese tariffs on American goods at 10%, dodging a scenario where rates would have rocketed to 145% and 125% respectively—numbers that could have sent shockwaves through global markets.
“It wouldn’t be a Trump-style negotiation if it didn’t go right down to the wire,” quipped Kelly Ann Shaw, a former senior White House trade aide, noting the President’s taste for brinkmanship.
A Truce Born of Uneasy Peace
The tariff ceasefire was born in May in Geneva, when negotiators hammered out a 90-day freeze to keep talks alive. By late July, a Stockholm follow-up ended in silence, leaving the world guessing whether the détente was dead.
Trump’s Monday comments gave little away—“We’ll see what happens,” he told reporters, but insisted ties with Chinese leader Xi Jinping were “very good.”
Behind the scenes, officials are grinding through thorny issues: soybean sales, high-tech export controls, and the elephant in the room—China’s vast industrial overcapacity.
Markets Breathe, But Only Just
Ryan Majerus, a former U.S. trade negotiator, called the extension “a stress reliever for both sides,” though it’s far from a cure. Business leaders had warned that without a deal, price hikes and supply chain chaos would hit within weeks.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Washington has “the makings of a deal,” but admits work is far from over. On Sunday, Trump pushed Beijing to quadruple U.S. soybean imports—an ask analysts call “ambitious bordering on fantasy.”
Beyond Tariffs—The Oil Factor
There’s another flashpoint: oil. Washington is leaning on Beijing to halt purchases of Russian crude, warning of possible “secondary tariffs” if the flows continue. Such a move would widen the conflict from pure trade into energy geopolitics—upping the stakes for both capitals.
Ninety Days to Decide the Future
For now, the tariff clock has been reset. But this is no permanent peace—just a 90-day timeout in a match where neither side wants to blink first. The question is whether the next three months deliver a breakthrough—or a bigger fight.
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