Bihar Elections 2025: Exit Polls Hint at NDA Surge, Grand Alliance Faces Major Setback
By Tajdar H. Zaidi
As Bihar waits for the final results, the collective reading of exit polls suggests a difficult road ahead for the Mahagathbandhan.
The opposition bloc, which secured 110 seats in 2020, is projected to suffer a significant decline this time, with most exit polls placing its tally well below that mark.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) — which emerged as the single-largest party five years ago — appears to be the biggest loser in this round.
Projections indicate that the BJP is set to claim that position, marking a shift in the state’s political balance.
Yet, the BJP’s expected tally of 67–70 seats is still lower than the RJD’s 75-seat performance in 2020.
Despite this lead, history reminds observers to exercise caution: Bihar’s exit polls have often faltered in the past.
Still, eight major agencies — including Dainik Bhaskar, Matrize, People’s Insight, Chanakya Strategies, and People’s Pulse — converge on one point: a clear edge for the NDA.
Their estimates range from 130 to 167 seats for the ruling coalition, while the Grand Alliance is predicted to secure between 73 and 108.
On average, the NDA is projected to hit around 146 seats, compared to 90 for the opposition.
A key point of discussion has been Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party. Positioned as a potential disruptor, the party appears to have made only a marginal electoral mark, with exit polls suggesting a tally ranging from zero to five seats, averaging just two.
However, analysts speculate that even such a modest showing may have siphoned crucial anti-incumbency votes, weakening the Mahagathbandhan further.
Breaking down party-wise projections, both the RJD and Congress show a noticeable decline.
The RJD is expected to net between 57 and 69 seats, while the Congress, already under scrutiny for its 19-seat showing in 2020, is pegged to secure only 11 to 14 seats this time.
Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), however, seems poised for resurgence.
After its 2020 tally of 43 seats, exit polls forecast a rise to between 58 and 71 seats — positioning the JD(U) as a key force within the NDA bloc.
As Bihar stands on the brink of another political shift, all eyes now turn to the counting day — when the accuracy of these projections will be tested, and the state’s political future will finally come into view.
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