Extreme Heat and Drought May Hit 28% of World by 2100: What It Means for India’s Northern Plains and Urgent Steps Governments Must Take

A new scientific assessment has warned that by the end of this century, nearly 28% of the world’s population — around 2.6 billion people — could face the combined threat of extreme heat and severe drought, a dangerous combination that can trigger large-scale crop failures, water shortages, forest fires and rising heat-related deaths.

According to a report by the American Geophysical Union (AGU), published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, simultaneous heatwaves and drought conditions are becoming significantly more frequent due to climate change.

These dual extreme events are far more destructive than either heat or drought occurring separately.

Researchers found that between 2001 and 2020, the world experienced an average of four compound heat-drought events annually, which is already twice as frequent as during the 1850–1900 industrial era.

If greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current pace, these events could occur up to 10 times per year by the 2090s, with some lasting as long as 15 days or more.

Experts warn that these developments will increase the risk of wildfires, water scarcity, crop destruction, food inflation and heat-related mortality, particularly in economically vulnerable regions.

Researcher Di Cai noted that extreme heat and drought intensify each other’s impact. Heat dries soil moisture faster, while drought reduces the cooling effect of vegetation, making temperatures even more dangerous.

The resulting conditions can destabilise food systems, increase prices of essential commodities and put millions of lives at risk, especially for outdoor workers.

The report also highlights a stark inequality: countries that contribute the least to global carbon emissions are expected to suffer the most severe consequences, largely due to weaker healthcare infrastructure, limited cooling access, such as air conditioning, and poor water management systems.

Future Risk Scenario for India

India is among the countries most vulnerable to compound heat and drought events, particularly in the northern and central plains, which include states such as:

• Uttar Pradesh
• Bihar
• Madhya Pradesh
• Rajasthan
• Haryana
• Punjab
• Delhi
• Chhattisgarh
• Parts of Maharashtra

These regions already experience intense summer heatwaves, and groundwater depletion has worsened drought risks in recent decades.

Likely Impact on Northern and Central India

If global warming trends continue, India’s northern plains could face:

 Severe Water Stress

The Indo-Gangetic plains depend heavily on groundwater for agriculture and drinking water. Rising temperatures will increase evaporation, while irregular rainfall patterns could lead to prolonged dry periods.

Cities such as Delhi, Lucknow, Kanpur, Patna and Jaipur may experience worsening drinking water shortages, especially during peak summer months.

 Agricultural Losses and Food Inflation

Wheat, rice, pulse,s and oilseed crops grown in northern and central India are highly sensitive to temperature variations. Heat stress during critical crop growth stages can sharply reduce yields.

Reduced crop production can lead to:

• Rising food prices
• Supply shortages
• Increased burden on poor households
• Economic stress on farmers

 Rising Heat-Related Deaths

India has already witnessed deadly heatwaves in recent years. Prolonged exposure to temperatures above 45°C can cause dehydration, heatstroke, organ failure and death.

Daily wage labourers, construction workers, farmers and street vendors are especially vulnerable due to continuous outdoor exposure.

 Urban Heat Island Effect

Concrete-heavy cities like Delhi, Kanpur, Jaipur and Bhopal tend to trap heat, making night-time temperatures remain dangerously high, reducing recovery time for the human body.

 Energy Demand Surge

Increased use of cooling appliances such as air conditioners will push electricity demand higher, potentially causing power shortages during peak summer months.

Increased Forest Fires

Central Indian forests in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh could face increased fire incidents due to prolonged dryness and high temperatures.

Lessons from Past Heatwave Tragedies in India

India has experienced severe heatwave disasters in the past, which have shaped government response strategies.

2015 Heatwave Crisis

One of the deadliest heatwaves in India’s history killed over 2,500 people, mainly in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. The tragedy exposed the lack of preparedness, the absence of heat action plans, and inadequate public awareness.

2019–2024 Heatwaves

Several states, including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan, reported deaths due to extreme temperatures. In many cases:

• Hospitals lacked dedicated heatstroke treatment facilities
• Labourers continued working in extreme heat
• Public water availability was insufficient
• Urban planning lacked heat mitigation strategies

These events pushed authorities to develop Heat Action Plans in multiple states.

What Governments Must Do Before the Crisis Intensifies

Experts suggest that early action can significantly reduce the impact of extreme heat and drought.

 Strengthening Heat Action Plans

State governments must implement district-level heat response systems that include:

• Early warning alerts
• Public awareness campaigns
• Emergency cooling shelters
• Adjusted working hours for labourers

Cities like Ahmedabad have shown success through structured heat action plans.

Water Conservation and Management

Key steps include:

• Rainwater harvesting in urban areas
• Restoration of ponds and lakes
• Efficient irrigation systems, such as drip irrigation
• Regulation of groundwater extraction

The Jal Shakti Ministry’s programmes need expansion in drought-prone districts.

Climate-Resilient Agriculture

Government agencies should promote:

• Heat-resistant crop varieties
• Crop diversification
• Improved crop insurance coverage
• Micro-irrigation techniques

Agricultural universities should accelerate research into drought-resistant seeds.

 Urban Planning Reforms

Cities must adopt cooling-friendly infrastructure,e such as:

• Green roofs
• Urban forests
• Reflective construction materials
• Increased tree cover

Reducing concrete heat absorption can significantly lower urban temperatures.

 Healthcare Preparedness

Hospitals must be equipped with:

• Heatstroke treatment protocols
• Emergency hydration facilities
• Special ward during the g summer months

Training frontline health workers can reduce mortality rates.

 Expanding Renewable Energy

Solar-powered cooling systems and improved power infrastructure can prevent electricity shortages during extreme heat periods.

 Public Awareness Campaigns

Citizens must be informed about:

• Hydration practices
• Avoiding outdoor exposure during peak heat
• Identifying symptoms of heatstroke
• Protecting the elderly and children

Role of Global Climate Commitments

Scientists say that effective implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement can significantly reduce future risks. If global emissions are reduced as per climate targets, the proportion of the affected population could decline from 28% to around 18%, reducing the number of vulnerable people from 2.6 billion to approximately 1.7 billion.

The study highlights that compound heat and drought events are no longer distant possibilities but emerging realities. India’s northern and central plains are particularly vulnerable due to high population density, dependence on agriculture, and increasing water stress.

Timely policy action, improved infrastructure, and climate adaptation strategies can reduce risks and save lives. Lessons from past heatwaves underline the importance of preparedness, coordination and public awareness in preventing large-scale loss of life.

The coming decades will test how effectively governments respond to climate threats that are becoming more intense, frequent and widespread.