New Flashpoint Emerges in Red Sea as Houthi Warnings Raise Fears of Bab el-Mandeb Shipping Crisis
While the global spotlight has largely been fixed on the Strait of Hormuz, where tensions linked to the Iran conflict have already disrupted maritime traffic, attention is rapidly shifting toward another vital maritime corridor — the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea.
Analysts warn that if the Yemen-based Houthi movement, a powerful armed faction aligned with Tehran, becomes directly involved in the widening confrontation, it could place yet another strategic shipping lane at risk.
Such a development could severely disrupt international commerce at a time when one of the world’s other key oil routes is already under strain.
Growing Concern Over Houthi Role
For several days, international media and policy observers have questioned why the Houthis had not yet entered the conflict despite their close relationship with Iran.
Headlines across global outlets reflected this uncertainty, asking whether the group would open a new front in the expanding regional crisis.
Those concerns intensified after Houthi leaders recently declared that their forces were “ready to act at any moment”, stating that their “hands were already poised on the trigger.”
The message signalled that the group could intervene if the situation escalates further.
Strategists in the region suggest the Houthis could be part of a broader Iranian approach designed to apply pressure across multiple theatres.
Iranian outlets have also reported that allied militant groups throughout the region are maintaining a high state of readiness as the confrontation unfolds.
Threat to a Second Global Trade Chokepoint
If the Houthis were to act militarily, their most likely target would be the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow maritime passage that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean.
The channel is a critical gateway for ships travelling between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal.
The strategic importance of this waterway rivals that of the Strait of Hormuz. While Hormuz handles a large share of the world’s oil exports from the Persian Gulf, Bab el-Mandeb is equally essential for container traffic and energy shipments moving between continents.
Because the passage is relatively narrow — measuring roughly 29 kilometres at its tightest point — it can easily become a bottleneck if military activity disrupts shipping.
What Happens If the Route Is Blocked
If vessels are unable to pass through Bab el-Mandeb and continue into the Suez Canal, ships travelling between Asia and Europe would be forced to take a much longer detour around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa.
Such rerouting would add approximately 10 to 15 days to a typical voyage that normally lasts about three weeks, significantly increasing fuel costs, insurance premiums and shipping rates.
According to estimates from the US Department of Energy, nearly 12 per cent of worldwide trade and around 10 per cent of seaborne oil shipments pass through this corridor.
In 2023 alone, roughly 8.8 million barrels of oil per day moved along this route, alongside substantial quantities of liquefied natural gas.
Houthi Track Record in the Red Sea
The prospect of a blockade is taken seriously because the Houthis have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping in the region.
Since seizing control of Yemen’s capital Sanaa in 2014, the group has maintained influence along much of the country’s Red Sea coastline.
During the Gaza war in 2023, the Houthis launched more than 100 strikes against commercial vessels, employing a combination of drones, anti-ship missiles and high-speed boats.
The attacks forced numerous shipping companies to divert their fleets around Africa, costing billions of dollars in additional transport expenses.
Security analysts say the group’s tactics often involve “swarm-style” assaults, in which multiple projectiles or drones are launched simultaneously to overwhelm defensive systems.
Western officials believe the Houthis receive intelligence support and weaponry from Iran, including targeting information gathered by surveillance assets in the region.
Strategic Leverage for Tehran
Experts believe the threat to Bab el-Mandeb fits within a broader geopolitical strategy aimed at pressuring Western powers and their regional partners.
Youssef Cherif, director of the Columbia Global Centre in Tunis, suggested that Tehran may be pursuing a multi-stage plan involving different allied groups across the Middle East.
In his analysis, Iran’s initial moves focused on disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The next stage involves tensions on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, which forces Israeli resources to be divided.
The final stage, he argues, could involve the Houthis attempting to restrict traffic through Bab el-Mandeb.
Economic Consequences Could Be Severe
Should both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb face simultaneous disruptions, the impact on global markets could be dramatic.
Together, these two maritime chokepoints handle roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne oil shipments, in addition to a massive volume of manufactured goods moving between Asia and Europe.
The disruption of Hormuz has already pushed crude oil prices close to $100 per barrel. If the Red Sea corridor were also compromised, analysts warn that energy prices could surge sharply while global supply chains experience severe delays.
Container shipments carrying electronics, machinery, consumer products and food supplies could face extended transit times, leading to shortages and higher prices in many markets.
Shipping Industry Already Reacting
Even before the latest threats, some shipping companies had begun adjusting their routes.
The Danish shipping giant Maersk announced earlier this month that it was suspending certain voyages through the Suez Canal corridor because of security concerns in the Red Sea.
The company said deteriorating regional stability had made the route increasingly risky for commercial vessels, prompting a temporary halt to transit through Bab el-Mandeb.
A Wider Regional Confrontation
The Houthis are part of a network of Iran-aligned groups sometimes referred to as the “Axis of Resistance.” Other members include Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq, Hamas in Gaza, and various armed factions across the region.
While Hezbollah and Hamas have suffered significant setbacks after years of confrontation with Israel, the Houthis remain relatively intact and have preserved much of their military capability.
Because they control territory along one of the world’s most strategic coastlines, their ability to disrupt shipping makes them a particularly powerful actor in the unfolding crisis.
New Strategic Dynamics in the Red Sea
Another factor shaping the region is Israel’s increasing strategic presence near the Red Sea. In late 2025, Israel recognised the independence of Somaliland, a self-declared state in northern Somalia.
Reports suggest Israel is exploring the possibility of establishing a military installation near the port city of Berbera, which sits across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen.
Such a base could allow Israel to monitor maritime activity and potentially conduct operations against Houthi positions.
If realised, the move would expand the geographical reach of the conflict into the Horn of Africa, further complicating the regional security environment.
A Critical Moment for Global Trade
With tensions escalating and multiple strategic waterways now at risk, economists and security analysts are warning of a scenario that could severely disrupt global commerce.
The simultaneous closure of both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would represent one of the most significant disruptions to maritime trade in modern history.
What once seemed like a distant possibility has now become a subject of urgent discussion as the conflict surrounding Iran enters its third week — and the world watches anxiously to see whether another vital sea lane will soon be drawn into the crisis.
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