Southwest Monsoon Likely to Hit Kerala Ahead of Schedule, IMD Predicts Earliest Onset Since 2010
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its forecast and now expects the southwest monsoon to arrive in Kerala earlier than its previously projected date of May 27.
If this early onset materializes, it could mark the earliest arrival of the monsoon in the region since 2010.
In an update released on Tuesday, the IMD stated, “Favourable conditions are likely to lead to the advancement of the southwest monsoon over Kerala within the next four to five days.”
Typically, the monsoon makes landfall in Kerala around June 1, officially kicking off the crucial four-month rainy season across India.
Once it arrives, the monsoon gradually spreads across the rest of the country and generally covers all regions by mid-July.
A senior IMD official noted that current oceanic and atmospheric indicators are aligned for an early monsoon onset this year. These include warm sea surface temperatures and conducive wind patterns that support the formation and intensification of monsoon systems.
The early monsoon advancement is not limited to Kerala alone. According to the IMD, the monsoon is also likely to progress into more areas of the southern Arabian Sea, remaining parts of the Maldives and Comorin region, parts of Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu, the southern and central Bay of Bengal, the northeast Bay of Bengal, and parts of the northeastern states within the same period.
Meanwhile, heavy rainfall is on the horizon for several parts of peninsular and eastern India due to the development of a weather system over the Arabian Sea.
The IMD has issued a red alert for Kerala, Karnataka, and coastal Maharashtra as a low-pressure system is expected to form off the Karnataka coast by May 22.
An upper air cyclonic circulation is anticipated to develop by Wednesday, which may evolve into a low-pressure area that moves northward and intensifies further.
The impact of this system will be widespread, with the IMD forecasting intense rainfall across Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura until May 24.
As the pre-monsoon activity picks up and weather systems become more active, authorities across the southern and eastern parts of the country are gearing up for potentially heavy downpours and associated risks.
The public is advised to remain alert and follow official updates closely in the coming days.
