Tarique Rahman’s Return and Bangladesh’s Political Reset: Implications for India and Regional Stability
The return of Tarique Rahman, son of former Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, after 17 years in exile marks a pivotal moment in Bangladesh’s turbulent political transition.
Rahman’s arrival in Dhaka on Monday was accompanied by a massive mobilisation of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), with an estimated 100,000 supporters gathering near the airport.
The scale, choreography, and symbolism of the roadshow — which took three hours to traverse a 13-km stretch — underscored both Rahman’s political centrality within the BNP and the party’s intent to project readiness for power.
Rahman had lived in London since 2008, effectively in self-imposed exile, amid multiple corruption cases filed during the tenure of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
His return, therefore, is not merely personal or partisan; it signals the reconfiguration of Bangladesh’s political landscape after the dramatic collapse of Hasina’s long rule in August 2024 following a student-led uprising that spiralled into a nationwide movement.
A Carefully Calibrated Political Re-entry
At the culmination of his roadshow, Rahman delivered a tightly framed 17-minute speech promising peace, stability, and the construction of a “new Bangladesh.”
Notably, he avoided any direct reference to Hasina — a calculated silence that analysts read as an attempt to appear statesmanlike and future-oriented rather than vindictive.
With general elections scheduled for February 12 next year, and Khaleda Zia’s health visibly declining at age 80, Rahman’s emergence as the BNP’s principal face now appears all but inevitable.
The broader context is critical. With the Awami League effectively sidelined following the 2024 upheaval, the BNP has positioned itself as the leading electoral contender.
Rahman’s return fills a leadership vacuum and provides the party with a unifying figure capable of mobilising cadres, voters, and international attention.
Why Rahman’s Return Matters for India
For India, Rahman’s political resurgence carries significant strategic implications.
For decades, New Delhi’s Bangladesh policy rested almost exclusively on close ties with the Awami League and Sheikh Hasina, driven by cooperation on counterterrorism, border management, and economic connectivity.
That assumption — that stability in Dhaka depended on the continuity of a single political force — has now been fundamentally disrupted.
Indian policymakers are therefore compelled to recalibrate. A potential BNP-led government under Rahman would likely seek a more balanced foreign policy, potentially reopening space for warmer engagement with Pakistan, even as it reassesses relations with India.
While the BNP has historically been viewed in New Delhi as less predictable and more nationalist in tone, recent diplomatic signals suggest India has begun cautiously engaging with BNP interlocutors to hedge against political uncertainty.
Minority Insecurity and the Law-and-Order Question
Overlaying these geopolitical shifts is a deepening humanitarian and internal security crisis. Religious minorities — particularly Hindus and Christians — report growing insecurity amid continuing unrest.
Accounts from residents in districts such as Mymensingh describe a climate of permanent fear, marked by mob intimidation, weak policing, and the perception that protection exists “only on paper.”
The situation, according to many minority families, has deteriorated further since the interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus assumed office.
Christians, too, speak of escalating threats. Reports of pastors being warned, mobs discouraging church attendance, and families confining religious activity to private homes point to a shrinking civic space.
Women, in particular, describe heightened vulnerability and self-censorship as a survival strategy.
These anxieties have spilled across borders. Relatives living in India describe constant concern for family members back home, underscoring how Bangladesh’s instability now carries regional emotional and political resonance.
Escalating Political Violence
The security situation has been further destabilised by targeted killings.
The assassination of Sharif Osman Bin Hadi, a prominent figure in the 2024 uprising, and the brutal killing of garment worker Dipu Chandra Das in Mymensingh have intensified public outrage and minority fears.
These incidents have triggered demands for accountability and resignations within the interim administration, while reinforcing perceptions of a deteriorating law-and-order environment.
Amid this backdrop, Dhaka’s summoning of Indian High Commissioner Pranay Verma over the security of Bangladeshi diplomatic missions in India reflects the broader strain and sensitivity now shaping bilateral relations.
An Uncertain Road Ahead
Tarique Rahman’s return, therefore, is emblematic of a larger transition: the end of a long-standing political order, the emergence of new leadership claims, and the rebalancing of regional diplomacy.
Whether Rahman can translate mass mobilisation into credible governance — and whether he can reassure minorities, stabilise institutions, and manage relations with India without inflaming nationalist sentiment — will determine not just the BNP’s electoral fortunes but Bangladesh’s trajectory in South Asia.
What is clear is that Bangladesh has entered a phase where political outcomes will reverberate far beyond its borders, compelling neighbours, especially India, to engage with a more complex, less predictable Dhaka.
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