As global tensions continue to rise, the specter of nuclear conflict looms larger than ever.
A recent study published in Nature Food predicts that nuclear war would not only cause widespread death through radiation, heat, and blast effects but would also severely disrupt food supplies.
Changes in the atmosphere, oceans, and international trade would lead to the starvation of 6.7 billion people worldwide.
The simulation, which considers the atmospheric and agricultural aftermath of a nuclear war, identifies countries that could avoid mass starvation.
Nations such as Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Australia, Iceland, and Oman are expected to sustain their populations due to their ability to support food consumption in a post-war environment.
“Food consumption can support the current physical activity in that country,” the study explains for these regions, highlighting their agricultural resilience in times of global crisis.
Regions at Risk of Starvation
Conversely, much of the world’s most populous regions would be hit hard. The simulation shows that the United States, Canada, much of Europe, and Russia would face devastating famine, with an overwhelming majority of their populations likely to die from starvation.
For example, in the U.S., 98% of the population (around 312.2 million people) could perish from hunger in the aftermath of nuclear war.
There are also areas that, while not facing complete starvation, would experience a severe reduction in calorie intake. In these regions, people would likely lose weight, with only sedentary activities being possible due to insufficient food. This scenario, particularly in the second year of conflict, reflects the challenges of maintaining energy levels without adequate nutrition.
In the partial livestock case, the model suggests that food resources would be limited, and only basic sustenance could be maintained in the second year. These scenarios are based on 2010 population figures and assume no international trade, further limiting food access and survival prospects for many nations.
Safety During a Nuclear Blast
While the risk of famine is one major concern, the immediate danger of nuclear war is the blast itself. A separate study from the University of Nicosia in Cyprus explored how to maximize survival during a nuclear explosion.
Using simulations of a 750-kiloton blast—three times the size of the Nagasaki bomb—the study found that the best place to shelter in a building is in a sturdy room, as far from doors and windows as possible, ideally in a corner.
The best place to shelter is in a sturdy building at the far end of the room from any door or window, and ideally in a corner,” the study noted, emphasizing the need to protect oneself from the blast wave and the intense winds that follow an explosion.
The research highlights the importance of sheltering from the shockwaves, which are responsible for much of the initial destruction.
Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating Nuclear Threats
The rising geopolitical tensions contribute to the nuclear risk, with recent developments exacerbating global fears.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned that Russia’s new, battle-tested missiles are capable of bypassing Western defenses and striking European capitals in minutes.
“Europe is wondering what damage the system can cause if the heads are nuclear… The damage is unacceptable, it is impossible to shoot down with modern means, and we are talking about minutes,” Medvedev posted on Telegram.
