India’s Suspension of Indus Waters Treaty Sparks Water Crisis Concerns in Pakistan
India’s recent decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty has raised alarm in Pakistan, as it grapples with a looming water shortage.
The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) expressed deep concern on Monday over a sharp decline in the flow of the Chenab River at Marala, which it attributed to reduced water supply from India.
This shortfall may result in a 21% water deficit for Pakistan during the crucial early phase of the Kharif cropping season.
The IRSA Advisory Committee met in Islamabad under the chairmanship of Sahibzada Muhammad Shabir to finalize the Anticipated Water Availability Criteria for the remainder of the Kharif season, spanning May to September 2025.
In a press release, IRSA stated that the committee had reviewed the water situation for the early (May–June 10) and late (June 11-September) Kharif periods.
The members unanimously noted a sudden drop in Chenab River inflows at Marala due to reduced upstream supply by India, warning that this could intensify water shortages in the early Kharif period.
Currently, the projected shortfall for early Kharif stands at 21%, provided that Chenab’s flow stabilizes. However, IRSA warned that if the reduced inflows persist, the shortage may worsen. For the late Kharif period, a 7% deficit is anticipated.
The crisis has been exacerbated by recent drops in water levels observed at Akhnoor in Jammu and Kashmir, following the closure of gates at the Baglihar and Salal dams. This operational move has further limited the flow of water downstream.
Residents have voiced support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, believing it to be a strategic move in response to Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism.
The decision to halt the treaty came in the wake of the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam’s Baisaran meadow, where gunmen targeted tourists, resulting in the deaths of 25 Indian nationals and one Nepalese citizen, with several others injured.
The attack was widely attributed to militant groups allegedly backed by Pakistan.
The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, allocates the waters of the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan and the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India.
While the agreement permits limited use of each other’s rivers, India is entitled to 20% of the total Indus system waters, with Pakistan receiving the remaining 80%.
With the treaty now in abeyance, regional tensions over water sharing are expected to escalate, potentially impacting millions of livelihoods dependent on agriculture in Pakistan.
