Is China justified in its plan to exploit Brahmputra river water for its own benefit deliberately overlooking India and Bangladesh’s humanitarian needs.China’s plan sends alarm bells ringing in India and Bangladesh having dependence on downstream waters of this mighty river:

China’s announcement of constructing the world’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet has raised significant geopolitical, environmental, and geological concerns for India and Bangladesh. The proposed dam, projected to surpass the scale of the Three Gorges Dam, is part of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan and aims to produce a staggering 300 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity annually. At an estimated cost of $137 billion, this massive infrastructure project will be the largest of its kind globally.

The Brahmaputra River, known as the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, is a crucial water resource for China, India, and Bangladesh. Flowing downstream into India and Bangladesh, the river sustains millions of people dependent on its waters for agriculture, drinking water, and livelihoods. Unlike the Three Gorges Dam, located in central China, this new project is planned for an environmentally sensitive Himalayan region, close to India’s border. The region is not only ecologically fragile but also falls within a high seismic zone, making it vulnerable to earthquakes.

The dam’s construction has raised alarms in New Delhi over its potential impact on the river’s flow and basin. Once operational, the project could significantly alter the water flow, leading to severe droughts during certain periods and catastrophic flooding at others. Such events could affect millions, if not tens of millions, of people in India’s northeastern states and Bangladesh, disrupting agriculture and local ecosystems.

New Delhi has expressed its concerns through diplomatic channels. Following Beijing’s announcement, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) reiterated the country’s commitment to protecting its interests. “We will continue to monitor and take necessary measures to protect our interests,” MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said. India has also urged China to ensure transparency in its plans and to respect the rights of downstream countries. At a press conference, Jaiswal emphasized India’s established rights as a lower riparian state and called for consultation and collaboration to avoid adverse impacts on downstream areas like Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.

In addition to environmental and water security concerns, the dam project has significant geopolitical ramifications. Experts warn that it could exacerbate tensions between India and China, potentially leading to “water wars.” Genevieve Donnellon-May, a geopolitical and strategy adviser, highlighted in 2022 that such projects could sow the seeds of prolonged disputes between the two nations. The dam, which is set to triple the designed capacity of the Three Gorges Dam, could alter regional power dynamics and increase China’s leverage over downstream countries.

The project also raises ecological and social concerns. Large dams typically cause significant environmental disruptions, affecting local biodiversity, fisheries, and the livelihoods of communities dependent on the river. During the construction of the Three Gorges Dam, over 1.4 million people were displaced. Although the new project is three times larger, Beijing has not disclosed estimates of the number of people who might be affected or displaced.

The environmental consequences extend beyond displacement. Altering the Brahmaputra’s flow and course could have devastating effects on India’s agricultural landscape, especially in the fertile plains of Assam. The dam’s construction is also likely to impact Tibet’s already delicate ecosystem, raising questions about its long-term sustainability.

China’s investment in infrastructure projects in Tibet has been extensive, supporting the feasibility of such an ambitious undertaking. However, the lack of transparency and consultation with affected countries continues to fuel mistrust. India and Bangladesh have consistently expressed concerns over China’s large-scale hydropower projects, emphasizing the need for cooperation and adherence to international water-sharing agreements.

While the primary goal of the project is hydroelectric power generation, leveraging the region’s high elevation and strong river flow, its broader implications cannot be ignored. The use of advanced engineering and construction technologies may enable the project’s completion, but these innovations do little to address the geopolitical, environmental, and humanitarian challenges it presents.

The proposed dam underscores the urgent need for dialogue and collaboration between China, India, and Bangladesh to ensure equitable and sustainable use of shared water resources. As the project progresses, continuous monitoring and international scrutiny will be crucial to mitigating its potentially far-reaching impacts.