Pakistan Caught Between Two Upstream Powers: India and Afghanistan Turn Water Into a Strategic Weapon
Pakistan today stands on the edge of a historic crisis—one that is not shaped by bullets or bombs, but by rivers and reservoirs.
The country that long sought to influence its neighbours through proxy militancy is now discovering the sharp edge of a new geopolitical weapon: water.
From Proxy Wars to Water Wars
For decades, Pakistan leveraged terrorism as a strategic tool to pressure India and maintain dominance in Afghanistan.
But now, in a dramatic reversal of fortunes, both India and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan have tightened control over key transboundary rivers, turning water scarcity into a national security emergency for Islamabad.
India’s Decisive Strike After the Pahalgam Attack
The first blow came from India.
Following the Pahalgam terror attack, which killed 26 civilians, New Delhi suspended key provisions of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty—a pact that had survived multiple wars between the two nations.
Under the treaty:
- India controls the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej (eastern rivers)
- Pakistan controls the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab (western rivers)
But in April 2025, India froze cooperation, restricting technical coordination and project clearances. As a result:
- Irrigation channels in Pakistan’s Punjab and Sindh began experiencing reduced flow
- Hydropower generation in several western river projects declined
- Water-scarce agricultural regions began sounding alarms
The move was a sharp message:
“Why water the fields of those who bury our citizens?”
Afghanistan Opens the Second Front
Before Pakistan could recover, Afghanistan widened the crisis.
The Taliban’s Supreme Leader, Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzad, a orderethe the rapid construction of multiple dams on the Kunar River, a major tributary of the Kabul River, which ultimately joins the Indus near Attock.
Geographical and Hydrological Significance
- The Kunar River originates high in the Hindu Kush mountains of Afghanistan, flowing southeast for 480 km before entering Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
- It feeds the Kabul River, a lifeline for agriculture, drinking water and hydropower
- A cut in upstream flow would critically threaten Pakistani districts, including:
- Nowshera
- Charsadda
- Peshawar Valley
- Southern Punjab canal systems
This comes in the backdrop of violent Durand Line clashes that killed hundreds, making the dam push appear as strategic retaliation.
India and Afghanistan: Strategic Hydrological Partnership
India’s growing role in Afghan infrastructure is reshaping regional power equations:
- India-Afghanistan Friendship Dam (Herat)The
- Shahtoot Dam on the Kabul River, funded with $250 million in Indian assistance
These projects reduce Afghan dependence on Pakistan, allowing Kabul unprecedented leverage. In essence:
Pakistan’s quest for “strategic depth” in Afghanistan has transformed into “strategic drought.”
Pakistan’s Water Future: Drying at Alarming Speed
Pakistan’s water availability has collapsed:
- From 5,000 cubic metres per person in 1947
- To less than 1,000 cubic metres today
—crossing the international threshold of absolute scarcity
With rising temperatures, weak reservoirs, decaying infrastructure, and upstream control slipping away, Pakistan faces an existential water crisis unlike any in its history.
South Asia is entering an era where rivers—not borders—will decide power.
And in water geopolitics, the nation downstream always drowns first.
#WaterWars #Geopolitics #IndusTreaty #IndiaAfghanistan #PakistanCrisis #HydroDiplomacy #KunarRiver #Taliban #SouthAsia #StrategicDrought #NationalSecurity #GlobalWaterCrisis
