Why Trump Is Turning Up the Heat on Venezuela: The Maduro Ultimatum, US Warships, and the María Machado Factor
The United States has dramatically escalated pressure on Venezuela, with former US President Donald Trump at the centre of a rapidly unfolding confrontation that now includes naval blockades, targeted attacks at sea, and open hints of regime change.
At the heart of the crisis lies Nicolás Maduro’s refusal to step down, Washington’s allegations of drug trafficking and illegal migration, and the growing prominence of Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado.
Why is Trump targeting Nicolás Maduro?
According to US officials, Trump personally spoke to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on 21 November and issued a one-week ultimatum: leave the country with your family or face decisive consequences.
Maduro rejected the demand.
Soon after the deadline expired, the US shut down airspace around Venezuela and deployed a massive naval force, signalling that Washington’s patience with the Maduro regime had ended.
Trump accuses Maduro of running a “narco-state,” claiming that Venezuelan oil vessels are being used to smuggle cocaine and fentanyl into the United States and that criminal gangs linked to Venezuela are fuelling America’s drug and migration crises.
Maduro, in turn, says the US is using the “war on drugs” as a cover to overthrow his government and seize Venezuela’s oil wealth.
Why have US warships surrounded Venezuela?
The US has sent its largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford, along with a full strike group, to waters off Venezuela.
The deployment includes guided-missile destroyers USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham and USS Sampson, P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft, and an attack submarine.
This is the biggest US military buildup in South America since the 1989 invasion of Panama.
According to The New York Times, US forces have carried out around 25 strikes since September on vessels linked to Venezuela, killing at least 85 people, many of them crew members on oil ships.
Washington has outlined three main objectives:
- Stopping drug trafficking allegedly routed through Venezuelan waters
- Blocking the sale and transport of sanctioned Venezuelan oil
- Curbing illegal migration, which Trump claims is being deliberately encouraged by Maduro
Are Venezuela and Maduro really behind US drug deaths?
Trump claims that Venezuelan ships are transporting cocaine and fentanyl, drugs that have devastated US communities.
He has designated two Venezuelan criminal networks — Tren de Aragua and Cartel de los Soles — as terrorist organisations, alleging that Maduro himself leads the latter.
However, experts say the reality is more complex. “Cartel de los Soles” is not a single organised gang but a term used for corrupt officials accused of facilitating cocaine transit.
Venezuela is largely a transit route, not a major producer of drugs.
US Drug Enforcement Administration data shows that most cocaine entering the US comes via the Pacific, while fentanyl is largely manufactured in Mexico and trafficked across the land border.
Venezuela does not feature as a source country for fentanyl in the DEA’s 2025 report.
Even so, Maduro has long faced allegations of corruption, drug links, and election manipulation — charges he consistently denies.
Is the US using Venezuela’s political crisis to its advantage?
Once known as the “Saudi Arabia of Latin America,” Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves but has collapsed into poverty, prompting nearly 8 million people to flee.
After Hugo Chávez came to power in 1999, Venezuela moved toward authoritarian rule marked by media curbs and corruption.
Following Chávez’s death, Nicolás Maduro took over in 2013 and has since been accused of repeatedly rigging elections.
The US stopped recognising Maduro as president in 2019, imposed sweeping sanctions, and even announced a bounty on his head, recently doubled by Trump.
At the same time, Washington has openly supported Venezuela’s opposition, especially María Corina Machado, who emerged as the regime’s strongest challenger.
Who is María Machado, and why does she matter?
María Machado, a longtime critic of Chávez and Maduro, rose to prominence in the early 2000s through her civil organisation Súmate, which accused the government of corruption and electoral fraud.
The group received funding from US-backed organisations like the National Endowment for Democracy, leading Caracas to accuse her of acting as a US proxy.
Despite being barred from contesting elections, Machado campaigned tirelessly against Maduro.
When she was disqualified ahead of the 2024 election, she backed Edmundo González, whom the EU and several countries recognise as Venezuela’s legitimate president.
Machado has strong ties with Washington and openly supports US pressure on Maduro.
Trump has called her a “freedom fighter,” demanded her protection, and offered political asylum.
She welcomed US military action near Venezuela, arguing it was necessary to restore democracy.
In 2025, Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, further elevating her global profile and strengthening her position as the symbolic face of Venezuelan opposition.
Could the US directly attack Venezuela?
US officials say all options are on the table, including covert operations and a possible ground assault.
Trump himself has hinted at expanding operations from sea to land, saying it would be “much easier.”
Washington has deployed far more troops than would normally be required for drug interdiction alone, fuelling speculation that regime change is the real goal.
Reuters has reported that the Trump camp has openly discussed engineering Maduro’s removal.
While no official invasion date has been announced, the scale of the military buildup suggests preparations for escalation are well underway.
What would the US gain?
Venezuela has an estimated 303 billion barrels of crude oil. Control over Venezuelan energy resources would give the US access to extremely cheap oil and weaken China, which currently buys around 80% of Venezuela’s crude.
Russia supplies weapons to Caracas, and Iran helps refine oil — all rivals Washington would like to dislodge.
If sanctions are lifted under a new government, US firms like Chevron could secure massive contracts in oil, mining and infrastructure.
If Maduro falls, who governs Venezuela?
If Maduro is removed, María Machado — with strong US backing — is widely seen as the most likely power broker.
She could either assume leadership herself or oversee a transition government followed by elections.
For now, Maduro remains in power and has labelled her a fugitive. Machado, however, is no longer underground.
She is currently in Oslo, Norway, having reportedly been evacuated with US assistance earlier this month.
The bottom line
What began as a crackdown framed around drugs and sanctions is rapidly morphing into one of the most serious US interventions in Latin America in decades.
Whether it ends in negotiation, a coup, or direct military conflict will shape not only Venezuela’s future but also the balance of power in the region.
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