In a significant development for India’s agricultural and economic landscape, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Saturday that the southwest monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala earlier than usual this year.
This seasonal weather phenomenon, which marks the beginning of India’s main rainy season, is now forecasted to make its onset over the state on May 27, several days ahead of the normal onset date of June 1.
The forecast carries a model margin of error of ± four days, meaning the monsoon could arrive as early as May 23 or as late as May 31. Despite this uncertainty, meteorological indicators suggest a strong likelihood of an earlier-than-usual start to the season.
The southwest monsoon is a critical event for the country, as it delivers nearly 75% of India’s annual rainfall, supporting the agricultural sector and replenishing water reservoirs across the nation.
Once it hits the Kerala coast, the monsoon typically advances northward, gradually covering the entire country by mid-July.
Earlier last week, the IMD had signaled the possibility of early monsoon activity, predicting its arrival over the south Andaman Sea and adjoining regions around May 13 — nearly a week ahead of the usual timeline.
If this prediction holds, it will further confirm that the broader monsoon pattern is advancing faster than normal this year.
According to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at IMD, current oceanic and atmospheric conditions are favorable for an early onset and timely progression of the monsoon across India.
Over the past five years, early monsoon onsets have occurred in 2021 and 2024 (both on May 31) and 2022 (May 27). This year appears to follow a similar trend, reinforcing a possible shift in seasonal patterns due to evolving climate conditions.
In its seasonal forecast issued in April, the IMD had projected that the southwest monsoon in 2025 is likely to be above normal, estimating rainfall at 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 880 mm.
Most regions across the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, though exceptions include northeastern states and Tamil Nadu, which may see below-normal precipitation.
This early and robust monsoon prediction is likely to bring relief to farmers, boost kharif crop sowing, and contribute to water availability across drought-prone areas.
